The weekend of late January is quickly becoming one of those ‘tell you a lot about the industry’ weekends at the box office. On one hand, there’s a gritty, original thriller that screams ‘made for the big screen.’ On the other hand, there’s a pricey documentary trying to live up to the level of investment that’s more typical of a summer blockbuster. Sam Raimi’s ‘Send Help’ is quietly emerging as the bright spot of the upcoming weekend, as the thriller is tracking for a respectable $14 to 17 million start in more than 3,400 theaters, with an additional $10 to 12 million coming in from international markets. Starring Rachel McAdams and Dylan O’Brien as co-workers who find themselves stranded in the jungle after a plane crash, the film is the type of raw, intense storytelling that Raimi has built his career on. There’s actually been some real buzz surrounding the film, particularly among genre fans who are looking for original stories that actually feel like they were made for the big screen.
A competitive late-January weekend underscores theatrical appetite
With a production budget reportedly coming in at around $40 million, ‘Send Help’ is not a huge bet for the filmmakers, and with the right word-of-mouth, the film could actually go somewhere. For theaters looking to rebound from a sluggish winter season, this would be a welcome boost.
Amazon MGM’s Melania, though, has a much steeper mountain to climb. The film is projected to debut between $3 million and $5 million from 1,500 locations. That’s not bad for a documentary, but it’s a far cry from the $40 million reported purchase price before marketing expenses are even taken into consideration.
Made by Brett Ratner, Melania Trump is a documentary about Melania Trump in the days leading up to Donald Trump’s second inauguration. While there may be some curiosity-driven interest in politics, there’s also a built-in limit to its appeal. Amazon MGM has certainly gone all out in promoting the film, including a premiere in Washington D.C. and a strong endorsement from Trump himself. The question, though, remains whether or not this will actually translate to box office success.
In other news, sci-fi thriller Iron Lung is tracking well and could finish second this weekend with a $10 million opening. Jason Statham’s Shelter, though, is coming in softer with a $5-7 million opening against a $50 million budget. The weekend overall shows that audiences will turn out for a good thriller, but prestige films continue to struggle to justify a big spend.
