The industry is once again forced to consider a question many believed had been relegated to the dustbin of the pandemic era: could the movies, as a shared theatrical experience, very well shrink down to a fraction of the size of the beloved art form of previous generations? Such trepidation has been fueled by two revolutionary changes now reshaping the industry’s dialogue. Firstly, there is the ongoing, undecided bid by Netflix to buy Warner Bros. Discovery, a possible merger that many industry heavy-hitters worry could very well see the theatrical window continue to shrink at the hands of streaming priorities.
Secondly, the industry was stunned by the announcement that the upcoming Academy Awards, starting in 2029, will no longer be presented on the traditional platform of broadcast TV but rather streamed exclusively on the popular platform of YouTube.
The theatrical window and a shifting power balance
Theaters were already struggling with debt and uncertain foot traffic in attendance, as well as cultural shifts resulting from the pandemic. Viewers are now more likely to wait for big releases to become available on a streamer, and a shorter window could easily make the movie-going experience more of an advertising launch point rather than the central one.
If this means an association between Netflix and Warner Bros. saw an opportunity to use size to reduce this window to an even shorter period, industry analysts are suggesting this could have a devastating impact on studios that have long used going to the movies to determine cultural significance and commercial success.
The Oscars on YouTube and the fight over cultural significance
The relocation of the Oscars to YouTube has also caused an equivalent sense of trepidation. There are reasons why the Oscars have chosen to make the transition. There would be global access and a younger audience that leans towards a platform in tune with new viewing patterns. However, there may be a sense that the significance and importance associated with the Oscars have been lessened to the point where the industry’s premiere event becomes another online program competing for attention in a very crowded online space—heralding a cultural turning point as the industry’s presence in cinemas faces its own challenges.
Still, Hollywood has endured television, home video, the disruptions of streaming, and a pandemic lockdown. Whether it’s an extinction-level event or just the next evolution, only time or the willingness to adapt and fight for what makes “going to the movies” so different will tell.
